Aug WASDE Report

Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised slightly this month as small increases for Soft Red Winter wheat and Durum are mostly offset by decreases for White, Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter wheat. U.S. wheat exports for 2013/14 are raised 25 million bushels reflecting continued strong early season sales and an increased outlook for China imports. Despite larger expected crops in several major exporting countries, strong early season demand and higher projected world imports and consumption also boost prospects for U.S. shipments. Ending stocks are projected 25 million bushels lower. The projected range for the 2013/14 season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint to $6.40 to $7.60 per bushel. Despite the tighter domestic balance sheet, larger world wheat supplies and lower-than-expected prices reported to date reduce prospects for the weighted average farm price.

Projected 2013/14 U.S. feed grain supplies are reduced this month with lower forecast production for corn and sorghum. Corn production for 2013/14 is lowered 187 million bushels to 13.8 billion. The first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 154.4 bushels per acre, is down 2.1 bushels from last month’s projection. Sorghum production is forecast 36 million bushels lower with the forecast yield 5.9 bushels per acre below last month’s projection. Corn beginning stocks for 2013/14 are projected 10 million bushels lower with a 15-million-bushel increase in 2012/13 exports only partly offset by a 5-million-bushel increase in imports. Feed and residual use for 2013/14 is lowered 50 million bushels this month with the smaller crop. Exports are projected 25 million bushels lower with reduced domestic supplies and increased foreign competition. Ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 122 million bushels lower. The projected season-average farm price for corn is raised 10 cents at both ends of the range to $4.50 to $5.30 per bushel. Prices received by farmers are expected to remain above cash bid levels through the fall as producers who forward-priced corn earlier in the year support the weighted average farm-gate price

U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 96.2 million tons, down 4.7 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production for 2013/14 is forecast at 3.255 billion bushels, down 165 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is forecast at 76.4 million acres, down 0.5 million from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 42.6 bushels per acre is 1.9 bushels below last month’s projection but 3 bushels above last year’s drought-reduced yield. Soybean supplies for 2013/14 are projected 5 percent below last month based on the lower production forecast. With reduced supplies and higher prices, U.S. soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 1.385 billion. Lower U.S.
exports will be mostly offset by increases for South America, especially Argentina. Soybean crush is also lowered as higher prices reduce prospective exports for soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 75 million from last month.

Beef exports are raised for 2013 on stronger shipments to several markets, while the forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month. Beef imports for 2013 are reduced based on second-quarter data, but are unchanged for 2014. The 2013 pork export forecast is down fractionally reflecting second-quarter data, with 2014 unchanged. The 2013 broiler export forecast is higher as shipments showed continued strength in June. The forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Turkey exports for 2013 are up slightly reflecting trade data for the second quarter. U.S. Census Bureau revisions are reflected in historical trade estimates.

Fed cattle prices are reduced in 2013 and 2014 as greater beef production and attractively priced competing meats are expected to pressure prices. Hog prices are raised for 2013 as demand strength is expected to continue through the end of the year. Broiler prices are reduced in 2013 and 2014 as recent price declines are expected to persist. Turkey price forecasts are unchanged from last month.

Looking for the full report? You can find it here: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

Stay tuned for Wednesday morning as ag broadcaster Sonja Langseth will catch up with DuWayen Bosse of Bolt Marketing, LLC for your market update and recapping the latest action on the Chicago Board of Trade.

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